I agree that regulation's path-dependence mandates caution & adaptive rules. But doesn't conservatism also lock us into a potentially costly path--namely, inaction during a critical window?
Sure, waiting for AI's trajectory to unfold gives us greater certainty about prudent policy actions. But in the world where your predictions materialize, you also talk about how AI policy becomes coarser, more populist, & more entangled with corporate interests. Isn't there a tradeoff between greater certainty about which policies are prudent & diminishing certainty about whether these policies can pass at all? Can good foundations alone counter the explosion of competing political interests as AI's impacts intensify?
"Historians looking back on the period between 2025 and 2035 are likely to describe it as a renaissance. And it will be. That does not necessarily mean it will be an enjoyable experience for most of the people who live through it." People argue about the exact dates of the Italian Renaissance, but I think "not an enjoyable experience" describes enough of it.
I agree that regulation's path-dependence mandates caution & adaptive rules. But doesn't conservatism also lock us into a potentially costly path--namely, inaction during a critical window?
Sure, waiting for AI's trajectory to unfold gives us greater certainty about prudent policy actions. But in the world where your predictions materialize, you also talk about how AI policy becomes coarser, more populist, & more entangled with corporate interests. Isn't there a tradeoff between greater certainty about which policies are prudent & diminishing certainty about whether these policies can pass at all? Can good foundations alone counter the explosion of competing political interests as AI's impacts intensify?
I wrote a bit about this tradeoff here: https://bullishlemon.substack.com/p/ai-forecastings-catch-22-the-practical
Agreed with all conclusions.
"Historians looking back on the period between 2025 and 2035 are likely to describe it as a renaissance. And it will be. That does not necessarily mean it will be an enjoyable experience for most of the people who live through it." People argue about the exact dates of the Italian Renaissance, but I think "not an enjoyable experience" describes enough of it.